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The last decade has seen increasing emphasis on developing and modifying management techniques to make them more relevant to the business decisions faced by an organisation.

Quantitative forecasting techniques see their greatest application as part of production and inventory systems. Perhaps unfortunately, the problem has been left to systems analysts while the professional societies have contented themselves with exhortations to improve forecasting, neglecting recent developments from forecasting research. However, improvements in accuracy have a direct and often substantial financial impact. This article shows how the production and inventory control forecasting problem differs from other forecasting applications in its use of information and goes on to consider the characteristics of inventory type data. No single forecasting method is suited to all data series and the article then discusses how recent developments in forecasting methodology can improve accuracy. Considers approaches to extending the database beyond just the time‐series history of the data series. Concludes with a discussion of an “ideal” forecasting system and how far removed many popular programs used in production and inventory control are from this ideal.

In recent work, we have developed a theory of economic forecasting for empirical econometric models when there are structural breaks. This research shows that well-specified models may forecast poorly, whereas it is possible to design forecasting devices more immune to the effects of breaks. In this chapter, we summarise key aspects of that theory, describe the models and data, then provide an empirical illustration of some of these developments when the goal is to generate sequences of inflation forecasts over a long historical period, starting with the model of annual inflation in the UK over 1875–1991 in Hendry (2001a).

‘FOG in Channel: Continent isolated!’ Those were once the headlines in a national newspaper which thus succinctly, although with unintentional irony, expressed the British sense of complacency. Making allowance for an element of exaggeration, the incident contained enough truth to make its point. The new alignments of industry and commerce which are now taking place mean that this country cannot afford to retain even a vestige of such an attitude.

FROM everywhere there are reports of increased issues of books from libraries. The famine in copies no doubt accounts in part for it and, probably, there is also what is almost a resurgence of effort after knowledge amongst young men and women who are endeavouring in many fields of work to recover some of the losses of the war years. We cannot recall at any time when so much hard grinding study was being done as now. Pessimists about youth and juvenile delinquency (which however is incidental to a much younger age than that we are contemplating) would do well to reflect upon this fact. Whatever the cause, the immediate prospects for libraries in universities, works, and social institutions of every sort were never brighter. We know that certain types of “economist” of the faded “retrenchment and reform” type say the situation is temporary and artificial but, even if it is, and we are by no means acquiescent in this opinion, much ground may be won and held from any temporary good period. We think librarianship, under the present leadership of the Library Association, may be able to consolidate the position both for public and for other kinds of libraries. The Association was never better led than since the war; it has had remarkably statesmenlike presidents, an active council and an Honorary Secretary who for constructive capacity, vision, literary skill and fearlessness, combined with an energy and industry that leaves most of his contemporaries breathless, has not been surpassed; and he is backed by a Staff that rises to the ever‐increasing demands of the service. We are glad to write this last sentence, for Secretary Welsford has to cover many duties and serve many causes: receive and entertain the Association's guests from overseas; look after meetings; the educational services which now are very great; attend to the troubles of librarians everywhere and advise in them about matters ranging from salaries to ethics; our publications, accounts, catering, interviewing, negotiating with public departments and other bodies. As for the meetings of the Council and its committees, we are told, not by Mr. Welsford who knows nothing of this note, that its reports and papers ran in March alone to 200 foolscap typed pages! Of course Mr. Welsford has an excellent staff which assists him with real live interest. The time has come, however, as our readers now know, when special senior officers to deal with Membership and Education respectively are to be appointed to work side by side with the Librarian, the excellent Mr. Henrik Jones (who never fails the searcher, even the youngest, and seems to know what we are all doing) to carry “at a high level” some of the burdens. Annual Reports are not always read but we were drawn to these reflections by the recently issued Report of the Library Association for the year. We commend it to those who are inclined to leave it unread.

The continent of Antarctica consists of 14 million km², roughly equivalent to the whole of South America, and is of immense interest to humanity, in particular to the countries of the Antarctic Treaty. The Antarctic continent is the continent of superlatives: it is almost isolated from the rest of the continents, and is severely cold, windy, and dry. In winter, the Antarctic area increases to nearly 32 million km², because of formation of a 1,000km wide ice‐belt. The average depth of ice on the continent is in the order of 2,000m, and in the transantarctic region this depth is 4,800 meters. Antarctica is the biggest sweet water reservoir of the planet earth. Icebergs are common and huge ones (190km in length and 130km wide) have also been observed. The minimum temperature recorded (–89.2°C) at Vostok (Russian base) on 21 July 1983 is also the minimum recorded environmental temperature on the planet earth. Because of extreme temperature variations the Antarctic winds have high velocity. The environment is very dry and at the center of the continent the dryness is of the same magnitude as in the driest desert anywhere on the planet. This is the only uninhabited continent of the planet, except for some 50 research bases which cover an insignificant area located on the continent and the Antarctica Peninsula. Because of its economic, strategic, geopolitical, scientific, meteorological, and oceanographic importance and possible exploitation in the future, Antarctica has been attracting greater attention every day. Antarctica is basically concentrated around the South Pole and it touches the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. Brazil, in common with many other nations, has geopolitical interests and in untapped mineral deposits (considerable deposits of coal, petroleum, gas). In the south, where the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans meet, the cold water of Antarctica is the habitat housing hundreds of species of sea life. Unrestricted and unbalanced exploitation of Antarctica could cause changes in the meteorological and oceanographic balance. In the present paper, the Brazilian Antarctic Program, and summarized results of studies of Antarctic soil, rocks, and sediments are reported.